{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "study": "public-risk-signal-base-rate",
  "measuredOn": "2026-08-28",
  "question": "On an ordinary cohort of Chinese manufacturers, how often does each public risk signal actually fire?",
  "source": "Tianyancha open API, six company-level risk interfaces, queried by 18-character code, no retry",
  "samplingFrame": "The 46 companies in assets/datasets/candidate-ordering-study-2026-08-18.json that resolved to exactly one candidate carrying an 18-character code; census of that subset",
  "readThisFirst": "Empty is not clean. A low hit rate means these signals are rare on a normal cohort, so finding nothing carries little information while finding something carries a lot. A platform reporting no record is not the same as the official register holding no record.",
  "privacyNote": "Only counts and presence are stored. No case numbers, parties, amounts or individual names are recorded, and no person-level interface was queried.",
  "method": "error_code 300000 is counted as a legitimate zero. A transport failure or any other error code is recorded as unreadable and never as zero.",
  "counts": {
    "frame": 46,
    "anySignalPresent": 18,
    "anySignalSharePercent": 39.1,
    "allSixNoRecord": 28,
    "allSixNoRecordSharePercent": 60.9
  },
  "signals": {
    "enforcement": {
      "label": "Subject to enforcement",
      "interfaceCode": "839",
      "present": 4,
      "noRecord": 42,
      "unreadable": 0,
      "presentSharePercent": 8.7
    },
    "dishonest": {
      "label": "Listed as a dishonest judgment debtor",
      "interfaceCode": "843",
      "present": 1,
      "noRecord": 45,
      "unreadable": 0,
      "presentSharePercent": 2.2
    },
    "abnormal": {
      "label": "On the abnormal-operations directory",
      "interfaceCode": "848",
      "present": 0,
      "noRecord": 46,
      "unreadable": 0,
      "presentSharePercent": 0
    },
    "seriousIllegal": {
      "label": "On the serious-violation list",
      "interfaceCode": "846",
      "present": 0,
      "noRecord": 46,
      "unreadable": 0,
      "presentSharePercent": 0
    },
    "taxArrears": {
      "label": "Named in a tax-arrears notice",
      "interfaceCode": "851",
      "present": 0,
      "noRecord": 46,
      "unreadable": 0,
      "presentSharePercent": 0
    },
    "hearings": {
      "label": "Has a published court hearing notice",
      "interfaceCode": "840",
      "present": 17,
      "noRecord": 29,
      "unreadable": 0,
      "presentSharePercent": 37
    }
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